| 顾沈怡,邱子健,詹永冰,钱锟,熊若男,戴海洋,尹君,申卫收.我国畜牧业碳排放时空特征与趋势预测[J].农业环境科学学报,2023,42(3):705-714. |
| 我国畜牧业碳排放时空特征与趋势预测 |
| Spatial-temporal characteristics and trend prediction of carbon emissions from animal husbandry in China |
| 投稿时间：2022-06-29 |
| DOI：10.11654/jaes.2022-0666 |
| 中文关键词: 畜牧业碳排放|时空特征|碳达峰|膳食结构|趋势预测 |
| 英文关键词: carbon emissions from the animal industry|temporal and spatial characteristics|carbon emission peak|dietary pattern|trend prediction |
| 基金项目:江苏省发展和改革委员会碳达峰策略和路径前期研究；南京信息工程大学气候与环境治理研究院开放课题（ZKKT2022A09） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为了探讨全国畜牧业碳排放的时空特征并预测到2060年的碳排放趋势，本研究利用排放因子法对全国2001—2017年畜牧业碳排放进行估算，并根据中国膳食协会所制定的膳食指标的食肉量进行预测。结果表明：2001—2017年全国畜牧业CO2e排放量整体呈现出升高-降低-回升-降低的趋势，并在2005年达到畜牧业碳排放峰值，估算为4.86亿t。在碳排放源中，畜禽胃肠道发酵的碳排放量占比高于畜禽粪便管理系统，并且在主要畜禽种类中非奶牛养殖过程中的碳排放量要高于其他的畜禽种类。在空间分布上，中南和西南地区的碳排放量相较于我国其他地区更高。根据膳食指标规定的健康食肉量标准进行调整，对于碳减排有着显著的积极影响，在未来40年内可减少畜牧业碳排放量的25%~75%。研究表明，在2001—2017年间全国畜牧业已在2005年实现碳达峰，在未来膳食结构中肉类消费量改善的前提下，畜牧业碳排放量的持续降低有利于我国碳中和目标的实现。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The emission factor method was used to estimate and explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions from animal husbandry in China from 2001 to 2017. Based on the amount of meat consumed according to the dietary index of the Chinese Dietetic Association, the carbon emission trend was projected in 2060. The results demonstrated that from 2001 to 2017, CO2e emissions from the animal industry in China fluctuated and reached their peak at approximately 486 million tons in 2005. The proportion of carbon emission from gastrointestinal fermentation was considerably larger than that from livestock manure management. Further, the carbon emission from non-dairy farming was notably higher than that from other livestock and poultry. Additionally, in terms of spatial distribution, carbon emissions in south-central and southwest China were higher than those in other regions. Adjustments to healthy meat consumption standards set by dietary targets might yield a significant positive impact on carbon emission reduction, thereby decreasing carbon emissions from livestock industry by 25%-75% over the next 40 years. Our study showed that the carbon emission peak of the livestock industry in China was achieved in 2005 dring 2001 to 2017. The continuous reduction of carbon emissions from the animal industry in the future through the improvement of dietary structure will enable the realization of national carbon-neutral goals in China. |
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